How the Israel-Iran War Might End (or Not)

A Grim Bullet Points Forecast for Greater Understanding (or Fear).

Jun 17, 2025

This war isn’t about deterrence or defense anymore; it’s about narratives, survival optics, and preemptive legacies. Iran is trying to look undefeated while bleeding. Israel is trying to look restrained while escalating. The United States, as ever, wants a war it can both deny and direct. What’s at stake isn’t just a nuclear program; it’s the illusion of control in a region that resists it.

Dear Readers and Subscribers,

In the spirit of clear-eyed analysis and sharp observation, I present to you a breakdown of the unfolding conflict between Israel and Iran. A war that, almost overnight, has pushed Gaza into the footnotes and Ukraine into the shadows.

What follows is not prophecy, but a guided tour through possible outcomes—grim, absurd, or eerily familiar—of a conflict that may reshape the region, redraw alliances, and rewrite headlines for months, if not years, to come.

🇮🇷 Option 1: Iran “Wins” by Losing Quietly

Tehran fires missiles, rattles sabers, and claims “mission accomplished”… while quietly accepting a U.S.-brokered cease-fire.
Think Hezbollah circa 2023: lots of firepower, zero meaningful counterattack.
Israeli strikes kill top Iranian commanders faster than Tehran can print replacement portraits.
Iran’s deterrence is largely performative. Netanyahu’s air force = surgical and relentless.
Outcome: Iran lives to bluff another day.

Iran gets a few symbolic hits in (missiles, maybe a car bomb or two).
Damage to nuclear sites? Yes. But repairs begin before the ash settles.
Global chorus of “de-escalate” grows louder: France, UK, and of course, Trump.
Trump on Truth Social: “Iran better make a deal before there’s nothing left of the Persian Empire!”
Israel, mindful of Trump’s mood and the optics, pauses operations, at least until after the next election cycle.
Result: diplomacy, but with a bruised ego and lingering drones overhead.

☢️ Option 3: Full Regional Meltdown

Iran decides everyone’s in: targets U.S. bases, uses Hezbollah 2.0, and calls on militias from Yemen to Iraq.
U.S. insists it's neutral... until it isn’t. Suddenly: joint strikes, bombers, and patriotic Pentagon press briefings.
Jordan, doing its best Switzerland impression, intercepts missiles again—accidentally joins the war in self-defense.
Result: a “limited” regional war that looks suspiciously unlimited.
Unlimited Coffee will work too!...

🔁 Option 4: Forever War

Formal end? Don't be naïve.
Israel throttles back to “surgical mode”: assassinations, sabotage, and occasional airstrikes.
Iran goes quiet but invests in invisibility cloaks for its nuclear program.
Every few months: a mysterious explosion in Isfahan, a missile near Tel Aviv, another joint funeral in Tehran.
Outcome: Think Cold War meets a digital surveillance state: everyone’s armed, angry, and always watching, with the rules constantly rewritten mid-battle.