The Domino Effect: How US Strikes on Iran Redraw Eurasia's Map

How a Middle Eastern Conflict Becomes a Transregional Humanitarian Crisis

Dear readers and subscribers,

Long before the current escalation in the Middle East, one of Russia’s most flamboyant and controversial politicians had already mapped out this scenario with unsettling precision. Vladimir Zhirinovsky, the founder of the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR), perennial presidential candidate, and the Duma’s self-appointed prophet of geopolitical doom, spent decades warning that an American strike on Iran would trigger exactly this kind of northward human avalanche. In a 2019 speech, (link to the video also at the end of this article) characteristically theatrical yet strategically sharp, he demanded Russia build refugee barracks in advance, warning that “refugees not only from Iran but also from Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia will trample into our North Caucasus.” Earlier, at Moscow’s elite MGIMO diplomatic academy in 2013, he told future Russian diplomats bluntly:

“Refugees from Iran can only move north—only to the north, especially through the Azerbaijani corridor.”