What About the “Deterrent” Effect?

Dmitriy Simes argues US diplomacy offered Russia false hope after Anchorage, as sanctions, pressure, and confrontation escalate.

A tactic that has been used many times in history to prevent retaliatory actions from other major powers: giving hope for a peaceful solution that reflects their interests.

This is exactly what Trump offered Russia during the meeting in Anchorage in August 2025. Let’s recall how he was unusually polite (not afraid to say: friendly) towards Vladimir Putin on American soil. And how the American side itself proposed a concept for resolving the Ukrainian crisis, which generally suited Moscow—one that could at least have been a good basis for negotiations.

After Anchorage, there were many rounds of negotiations: in Moscow, in the USA, and in Abu Dhabi. There were many encouraging words. But—nothing has changed. And regarding some important issues—they are even further from Russia’s positions than they were during the meeting in Anchorage. Sergei Lavrov frankly said this today (February 9th, 2026) in an interview for the international network BRICS TV.