Moscow-Baku: From Partnership to Breakdown

Chronology of Worsening Relations

What was once a model alliance between Russia and Azerbaijan is now unraveling. A suspicious plane crash, the violent deaths of Azerbaijani citizens in Yekaterinburg, and reciprocal arrests have pushed relations into their worst crisis since the Soviet collapse.

My Dear Readers and Subscribers,

In the analysis below, I unpacked for you a Kommersant’s¹ full report to explain how a diplomatic success story became a cautionary tale of shifting loyalties and rising tensions in the post-Soviet space.

The Azerbaijani authorities responded to the incident in Yekaterinburg by harshly detaining two "organized criminal groups" involving Russians, accusing them of transiting drugs from Iran, online trading in banned substances, and cyber fraud. Photo: operational shooting.

Bottom Line Up Front:

Russia and Azerbaijan are entering their most serious diplomatic crisis in decades, driven by an unsolved plane crash, the suspicious deaths of Azerbaijani citizens in Russia, and tit-for-tat arrests. What began as isolated incidents has escalated into a full breakdown of political, cultural, and consular ties—signaling a potential shift in Baku’s geopolitical alignment and exposing Moscow’s waning influence in its own neighborhood.

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Deep-Dive Analysis & Clarification: